Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-1-2025

Abstract

Objective Environmental variability as a factor of climate change and water management can result in fluctuations in the abundance and distribution of fish populations from year to year, with either negative or positive effects depending on behavioral and physiological requirements and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. Variability in water levels can also influence prey availability, affecting predator abundance in seasonal foraging areas. In this study, our objective was to better understand how environmental variation has affected the relative abundance of Common Snook Centropomus undecimalis in the freshwater/estuarine habitats of Everglades National Park. Methods Electrofishing data over 17 years (2004-2021) were analyzed in relation to a long-term time-series of environmental conditions, including water level, temperature, salinity, and precipitation. We used seasonal and trend decomposition via locally estimated scatterplot smoothing to isolate the effect of seasonality and identify nonlinear trends in the environmental time-series data and Common Snook abundance and Mann-Kendall trend tests to identify monotonic and directional trends over time. To identify the factors that best explain variation in Common Snook abundance, we used generalized linear models to relate relative abundance to the environmental covariates. Results We found significant long-term trends of increasing water level and temperature and decreasing salinity in the study area. The generalized linear models indicated that Common Snook abundance had a negative relationship with water level and a positive relationship with temperature. Common Snook abundance over the 17 years of sampling was relatively stable; however, increases/decreases in Common Snook abundance corresponded to both seasonal changes in water level and the periodic occurrence of extreme conditions (e.g., cold spells, droughts, prolonged dry-season flooding). Conclusions Understanding how past environmental change has affected fish populations can provide insight into how they may respond to future conditions. Our results suggest that water management decisions that maintain seasonal patterns of high/low water levels can potentially mitigate climate-driven shifts by providing conditions that promote prey production in the wet season and foraging opportunities in the dry season, increasing the relative abundance of ecologically and recreationally important species such as Common Snook.

Comments

Oxford University Press originally published this article.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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