Date of Award

Spring 2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science (BS)

Department

Marine Science

College

College of Science

First Advisor

Erin E. Hackett

Abstract/Description

Communication and sensing technologies are influenced by atmospheric properties such as the air’s index of refraction, humidity, and temperature in the marine atmospheric surface layer (MASL). Recent research has demonstrated that radar can remotely sense the index of refraction in the MASL and, sometimes, numerical weather prediction models (NWP) can be used to aid this process. These developments are important because they allow for larger spatial coverage and finer temporal resolution than is possible with in-situ atmospheric sensors. More recently, on-going research is working toward extending this remote sensing capability to humidity using refraction as an intermediary. In order to advance these remote sensing methods an assessment of the accuracy of remotely sensed refractivity and NWP forecasts is needed. As such, this study focuses on determining the errors of NWP forecasts of refractivity, temperature, and humidity, and remotely sensed refractivity based-on statistical comparisons to direct meteorological measurements during the Coupled Air–Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research-East (CASPER-East) field campaign. These analyses enable an overall assessment of the NWP forecasts and refractivity that can be used to test and evaluate on-going research aimed at extending remote-sensing technologies. Error statistics show that a majority of NWP and remotely sensed refractivity estimates are accurate (low root-mean-square errors and high correlation coefficients) relative to in-situ atmospheric measurements. When large errors do occur, they often occur during highly unstable atmospheres, which are abnormally dry relative to the other time periods during the CASPER-East field campaign. Furthermore, NWP temperature forecasts, in general, contain less error than humidity forecasts. Thus, because humidity has the largest effect on refraction, errors on NWP refraction are likely driven by inaccurate humidity predictions. Moreover, spatiotemporal differences between the NWP or remotely sensed refractivity and in-situ measurements had no statistically significant linear relationship to error magnitude.

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