Date of Award

Fall 12-15-2011

Document Type


Degree Name

Bachelor of Science (BS)


Political Science


College of Humanities and Fine Arts

First Advisor

Holley Tankersley


Conventional analysis of midterm elections is usually in relation to the previous presidential election, or the issues or events leading up towards a presidential election. Rarely is midterm elections considered in terms of whether the president, or his party in some cases, would retain the White House in the next presidential election. The focus of this research is to determine whether midterm elections can serve as a predictive indicator of the outcome in the following presidential election. For decades, scholars have speculated as to why the president's party suffers losses at the midterm election. An examination of these theories can provide insight into the variables that should be considered when examining the central question of this research.