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Volume Number

53

Issue Number

1

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of partisan polarization in U.S. county-level presidential voting. Although the extant literature that addresses partisan sorting and/or polarization is extensive and growing, the literature is not without controversies. Our paper investigates the sequence and timing of shifts in partisan vote shares at the county level from 1932 through 2020, with a focused review of the dynamics of partisan shifts in southern states. While some scholars of southern politics conclude that the South generally follows national trends, other scholars suggest the opposite—that the nation follows the South. Our paper identifies trends in partisan competition in the South vs. the non-South and the drivers of these trends. We examine a range of sociodemographic characteristics to help explain differences in partisan competition. We employ confirmatory factor analysis to determine the extent of partisan competition in counties from the 1932 election through the 2020 election, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to examine the social factors that impact the increasing trend toward partisan polarization in the U.S.

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