NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK: THE DECLINING ELECTORAL IMPORTANCE OF CONSTITUENCY INTACTNESS ON U.S. HOUSE INCUMBENTS’ POST-REDISTRICTING MARGINS, 1992-2022

Authors

Richard Born, Vassar CollegeFollow

Volume Number

52

Issue Number

1

Abstract

Redistricting studies of pre-2022 elections have found that lesser numbers of retained constituents placed in a Congress member’s new district impair reelection margin, insomuch as new constituents are largely unaware of the past “personal vote” activities (i.e., casework, pork barreling, and trips back home) undertaken by the member. The declining efficacy of the personal vote over time, however, suggests that the new constituent penalty likewise should have weakened. Analysis of the four most recent redistricting cycles confirms this expectation; in fact, constituency retention is not even statistically significant in 2022. Part of the explanation, however, can be attributed to “district shopping.” Members, presumably sensitive to the waning relevance of retained constituents, have shown increased willingness to abandon the new district with the most old constituents and to run in a lower retention, but more partisan-friendly, district. Their subsequent strong electoral showing thus weakens even further the explanatory importance of retention in 2022.

Recommended Citation

Born, Richard (2024) "NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK: THE DECLINING ELECTORAL IMPORTANCE OF CONSTITUENCY INTACTNESS ON U.S. HOUSE INCUMBENTS’ POST-REDISTRICTING MARGINS, 1992-2022," Journal of Political Science: Vol. 52: No. 1, Article 4.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.coastal.edu/jops/vol52/iss1/4