"Different People or Switching Sides?" Understanding the Determinants of Political Change in the States

Authors

Scott Harris

Volume Number

46

Issue Number

1

Abstract

Recent research addresses over-time changes in the macro-partisanship of state electorates. A fundamental question related to this research is whether changes in the political preferences of state electorates are primarily driven by compositional changes or voter conversion. In this paper, I argue partisan conversion is likely the predominant driver of shifts in states' political landscape. As to the causes of this conversion, I further argue that larger relative state income growth has been an unappreciated factor in shifting state macropolitics to the right. To test determinants of state political change, I construct regression models of shifts in presidential voting and self-identified ideology from 1990-2010. Results are generally mixed but do provide evidence that compositional changes were insufficient to explain state electorate change over this time period. Findings also indicate state median income growth is a strong predictor of shifts towards both Republican-candidate vote-share and conservative self-identification. Together, these findings support further integration of research concerning the dynamics of state-macro politics with individual-level studies of partisan! ideological conversion.

Recommended Citation

Harris, Scott (2018) ""Different People or Switching Sides?" Understanding the Determinants of Political Change in the States," Journal of Political Science: Vol. 46: No. 1, Article 4.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.coastal.edu/jops/vol46/iss1/4